Are FURIA now real dark horses for the StarLadder Budapest Major?

We’re a few days beyond FURIA’s impressive reverse-sweep win at the Thunderpick World Championship now, and the dust has had time to settle. A second trophy of 2025 for a team that was previously in a draught. Even without a true top-tier championship under their belts, it’s fair to suggest the Brazilian organization is right in the mix for the big prizes.

Their peak is coming at a good time. In exactly one month, the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025 will get underway, bringing together 32 elite teams in the highest-stakes CS2 event of the year. It’s the big one, the one all players dream of winning. FURIA’s IGL FalleN even won two back in his heyday.

But when thinking of potential winners in Budapest, it’s easy to overlook FURIA. Rather, it’s the big dogs who come to mind. Vitality, Spirit, even Falcons on pure name value alone. The MongolZ, too, before they benched Senzu one month before the event. But are FURIA actually real dark horses to win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? I’m going to make the case.

Peaks, not consistency, win Counter-Strike Majors

Throughout the history of Counter-Strike, we have seen plenty of teams win a Major that theoretically should’ve had no business doing so, at least going into their respective victories. Cloud9, Boston 2018. Outsiders, Rio 2022. NAVI, Copenhagen 2024. Three teams that peaked at the perfect moment, just high enough to claim Counter-Strike’s greatest prize. NiKo’s decade of consistent greatness counts for little, for he is yet to have a single life-tournament at a Major quite like Valorant streamer tarik. And that is what the history books will say.

The point is, if you peak at the right moment, history suggests that you can win a Counter-Strike Major. Vitality’s win in Austin earlier this year after five months of consistent brilliance was an outlier, almost. They did what was expected of them, but the Major invites a different type of pressure that many a great CS team has crumbled under. Too often, the best team of each season in fact doesn’t win the Major, again owing to my point.

This is the hope that FURIA must cling to. Their peak since adding YEKINDAR and molodoy has been extremely high, showing they can beat teams like Spirit, MOUZ, Falcons, and The MongolZ. Just about everyone around them, barring Vitality, who they took a map off at ESL Pro League Season 22. The FURIA ceiling looks more and more like it’s made of glass with every passing match, the team breaking through to new heights, tournament by tournament.

FURIA are no longer there to upset the best CS2 teams in the world. No – they’re one of them. If they face MOUZ, they’re no longer massive underdogs looking to pull off a miracle. That is simply not the expectation anymore. In a series against a team like Falcons, you might even peg FURIA as favorites, high are the peaks they’ve displayed over the last few months. The consistency isn’t quite there yet, but as we’ve already established, FURIA are looking to win a Major, not start an era. If they can just find the right run (and maybe avoid Vitality in the process), then there’s every chance FURIA will be very competitive at the StarLadder Budapest Major.

The current state of play could leave the door wide open for FURIA

FURIA are a very good Counter-Strike team – that isn’t on trial here. But in the past, underdog Major wins have often come at times when the favorites just weren’t at it at that moment in time, and frankly, that’s how things are shaping up ahead of the StarLadder Budapest Major.

Let’s assess the teams around them. Aurora are a non-issue. The MongolZ just benched their best player right before the event. MOUZ are just eternal “nearly men.” Falcons have a litany of issues that are seemingly preventing them from being true contenders. Spirit are struggling for consistency in life post-zont1x. G2 won BLAST Open London and have failed to win a game of any real consequence since. And the likes of FaZe and NAVI are barely worth mentioning in their current states. That leaves just Vitality, who are once again starting to bear some resemblance to the team that dominated the first half of the year. A scary prospect, to be sure, but Vitality are clearly not unbeatable.

Really, you could poke holes in all the teams surrounding FURIA at the moment. Pick out reasons why they won’t win the Major. Not that FURIA are perfect, of course not. But the reality is that every top team heading to the StarLadder Budapest Major next month is profoundly beatable, which could be the perfect environment for that fairytale FURIA run. With FalleN rolling back the years, YEKINDAR back at a Tier 1 level, and molodoy continuing to define himself as one of the best CS2 AWPers, don’t rule it out.