CS2 Case Odds: How Drop Rates Work For Case Openings

There’s nothing quite like the rush of opening a Counter-Strike 2 case. The thought of turning a cheap key into a skin worth hundreds of dollars is the reason why thousands of players open cases every day. But, since real money is involved, it helps to know what your chances of turning a profit actually are. Here are the official CS2 case odds so you know what to expect. 

What Are Case Odds in CS2?

We all know getting a profit from opening CS2 cases requires luck, and that luck follows a fixed probability system. Weapon cases and Souvenir Packages are tied to fixed CS2 case odds that determine how likely it is to unbox certain skins.

CS2 cases always have a fixed lineup of skins inside them, and these predetermined skins are all sorted into different rarity levels. Unboxing a case will give you one of those skins at random, with higher-rarity skins being much harder to obtain. 

Since the rare skins are much harder to obtain, they naturally become more valuable on the CS2 market. So, if you’re trying to make a profit from opening cases, you’ll have to hope for skins that fall under the higher rarities. 

What Are the CS2 Weapon Case Odds?

Back in the old days, CS2 players had to estimate the case odds by manually collecting CS2 case stats. However, Valve was eventually required to release the official CS2 case odds, which apply across all weapon cases. This means that the CS2 case drop pool uses the same rarity drop rates, regardless of which collection or price. 

The table below shows you the official CS2 case odds:

With the numbers above, it’s clear to see just how rare items in the highest tier are. You have less than a 1% chance to unbox a Covert or Exceedingly Rare item. 

What Are the CS2 Case Odds for Knife?

When we look at the official CS2 case odds above, we can essentially say that the chances of unboxing knives or gloves from a case are around 1 in 385 cases. 

Now that we know the numbers, it doesn’t sound too bizarre to see knives getting listed for hundreds, or even thousands of dollars. 

Odds of Getting a StatTrak Skin

CS2 cases also have a chance of dropping StatTrak skins, which adds a kill counter to your weapon skin. Though the official odds have not been revealed, many believe the chances of a skin coming in StatTrak are around 10% (or 1 in 10). 

The 10% odds of getting a skin in StatTrak are completely separate from the CS2 case drop rates we discussed above, meaning it does not affect your chances of getting a specific rarity.

Is Opening CS2 Cases Worth It?

In general, you would have to unbox a Classified (Pink) skin or better to make a profit or break even from opening a CS2 case. 

So, the chances of pulling either a Pink, Red, or Gold skin are around 4.1%. This pretty much means you have a 95% chance of ending on a loss when opening any CS2 case. 

It’s worth noting that there is no system of “pity” odds in CS2. So, opening more cases doesn’t mean your chances of pulling a knife increase. Some players unbox their first knife within their first 10 cases, while others are yet to pull knives on their 500th attempt.

What Are the CS2 Souvenir Package Odds?

Weapon cases aren’t the only things you can unbox in CS2 – Souvenir Packages also exist. Items in packages are special, as any skin unboxed from these packages will come with four golden stickers from CS2 Majors that cannot be purchased separately. 

Here are the official Souvenir Package odds in CS2:

Covert is the highest possible rarity in Souvenir Packages, meaning they do not drop Exceedingly Rare Items like knives and gloves. Interestingly enough, the chances of pulling a Covert skin from a Souvenir Package are much lower than the odds of pulling knives from regular weapon cases. These numbers mean the odds of unboxing a Souvenir Covert skin are around 1 in 3906! 

Most Counter-Strike players know that the Souvenir AWP Dragon Lore is one of the most expensive skins in CS2, and unboxing it from a Souvenir Package is the only way to get it. Considering that Souvenir Cobblestone Packages sell for over $1,000 each, the skin’s prices for hundreds of thousands suddenly don’t seem too insane.