IEM Krakow 2026 Semi-Finals Preview: MOUZ and FURIA set as underdogs

The IEM Krakow 2026 Semi-Finals are here, with Spirit vs. FURIA up first before MOUZ and Vitality go head-to-head for a spot in the Grand Final. Notably, last year’s finalists at IEM Katowice, Spirit and Vitality, are still present in the tournament, meaning if the favorites get the job done, we could be set for an epic rematch in Poland.

After yesterday’s IEM Krakow Quarter-Final matches were hardly a contest, we have to hope that the Semi-Finals will deliver a more competitive affair. Here’s our prediction for both matches.

Spirit vs. FURIA

Although most would peg Spirit as favorites in this matchup based purely on current form, you’re really splitting hairs between them and FURIA. It’s a series that could purely come down to how nuclear donk goes, and that’s always a pretty good bet.

Crucially, though, FURIA have played a lot more CS than Spirit throughout IEM Krakow 2026. Five best-of-threes in total, of which three have gone all three maps. Compare that to Spirit, who have played three best-of-threes in Krakow, with only one going the full distance.

You can never discount the “warmness” factor in matches like this. And though FURIA haven’t looked at their best, I think they’ll be able to do enough to take a map in this series. But we saw how the pressure seriously got to FURIA back at the Major, and I could see something like that happening again here. Meanwhile, this Spirit core have never looked phased by pressure. Rather, they tend to thrive in it. I’m backing the raw firepower of donk to tip the scales in this series.

Our prediction: Spirit 2:1 FURIA

Vitality vs. MOUZ

Historically, Vitality vs. MOUZ has been a very rough matchup for the latter. Vitality have had MOUZ on a leash, dominating them time and time again. It was hard to watch at one point, but now I’m just a little numb to it all. I imagine that’s how the MOUZ players feel at this point, too.

Of course, they’ll back themselves all the way to win this one, but it won’t be easy. I’ve been very impressed with Spinx for MOUZ. He’s been finding tons of impact with some great multikill rounds throughout IEM Krakow 2026, and he’ll need to keep up the form against his old team if MOUZ are to have any chance in this Semi-Final.

All this talk of MOUZ’s chances is all well and good, but it might not matter at all when Vitality have Counter-Strike’s resident alien on the roster. ZywOo remains the highest-rated player at the tournament with a 1.52 rating, albeit with just six maps played in Krakow so far. Still, the Chosen One is undoubtedly on a tear at the moment, and you don’t envy the MOUZ task of finding a way to stop him. Combine this with flameZ also being in incredible form, and you start to see a picture where it’s hard to envision a MOUZ win here.

Our prediction: Vitality 2:0 MOUZ