Danish Counter-Strike really is in the mud right now, isn’t it? PGL Bucharest 2025 has marked yet another awful result for Astralis this year, crashing out in the 2:2 bracket to an unconvincing Virtus.pro.
The team’s third-place finish at PGL Cluj-Napoca 2025 are but a distant memory at this point, with big underperformances at two tournaments in a row now. No one expected Astralis to be a real contender going into this year, but I at least thought they’d give us some better showings than this with cadiaN stamping his authority on the roster.
Austin Major represents Astralis’ best hope for 2025 success
After their 2:0 loss to Virtus.pro at PGL Bucharest 2025, all hopes for the first half of the year now rest on one event: the BLAST Austin Major. They’ll be in attendance at PGL Astana, too, but a strong team lineup there doesn’t exactly make me all too hopeful for their odds of a strong showing. There’s one problem, though. They’re not invited (directly) to the Major. Instead, they must fight their way through the MRQ, after their bad performances cost them a direct invitation at the final hurdle. Ironically, the final slot instead went to Virtus.pro.
It’s a tough spot to be in. Astralis are now facing the very real prospect of missing a fifth consecutive Major, which could have dire implications not just in terms of prestige, but also in a financial aspect. Looking at the teams at the EU MRQ, you still have to fancy Astralis to nab one of the six available slots on name value alone. However, their showing at PGL Bucharest 2025 shows they can still lose to just about anyone on their worst days, given they lost to Tier 1 debutants Apogee. There are no guarantees that Astralis will have the opportunity to save their season if their MRQ goes poorly.
What is a successful Major for Astralis?
I should qualify that should Astralis reach the BLAST Austin Major, I’m not expecting them to win the thing. They haven’t won a Tier 1 trophy in several years, and not even the most delusional of Astralis fans could argue that they look remotely ready to do so in their current state. Tempered expectations mean that Astralis can still make a success of the next few months, but what does that actually look like?
Making the Major is a start, but I’d argue that this still isn’t enough. A Playoff run – that would be a win. As one of the biggest names in Counter-Strike, Astralis on a big stage in front of a crowd just feels right. They have no divine right to be there, of course, but if they can earn it, Astralis have to see that as a huge win for the current project. After all, I can’t imagine crashing out of PGL Bucharest 2025 is part of their grand plan to get back on the pinnacle of Counter-Strike, so they need to take wins where they can get them. Baby steps.
So, if Astralis can make the Playoffs of the BLAST Austin Major, I reckon they’ll look at their first half of the year in a more favorable light. They still have to get there, first.
How can Astralis get back on the right track?
For all this talk of Astralis making a success of Q1 and Q2 of 2025, I don’t think they will. I won’t be surprised if they miss the Major, even. They’ve looked extremely poor of late, failing to convince even in their few victories. In the chop-and-change world of Counter-Strike, this usually means fresh faces are required.
Going into the second half of 2025, I expect Astralis to make at least one change in the player department. As is often the case, the buck stops at the top for failure, and I imagine IGL cadiaN will be first out the door. It just hasn’t really worked, has it? The high-risk, high-reward style that defined his Heroic roster at the end of the CS:GO era has failed to translate, and invidually, it would be an understatement to suggest he’s been a liability, AWP or not. At this point, Astralis might as well roll the dice on HooXi – at least his calls resulted in a Katowice and Cologne win.
So, that’s the IGL conundrum out the way (and that’s what I predict will happen). With the reality of the Valve Regional Standings, Astralis can’t really make more than two changes in the mid-Season break. If they fail to make the Major (or crash out early), I suspect there’ll be a second change, too. It’s been long enough that Astralis can finally rid themselves of one of jabbi or stavn, having paid an eye-watering fee for their services at the end of 2023. There’s no need to save face anymore, and personally, I think it’ll be stavn. Statistically, he outperforms jabbi by a pinch, but from positions he should be getting tons of value from.
As for a replacement, this is where I shrug my shoulders. Astralis’ Danish identity means they’re extremely limited on replacements, with a pool of talent that only seems to be getting smaller. Much like Staehr, who has proven to be a shrewd purchase, it could be a case of flipping the coin on more youth talent, although it’s a strategy that hasn’t always proven successful for Astralis in recent years.
It’s clear that there’s no quick fix for Astralis’ problems. While there’s a world where they make a success of the year yet, it’s equally likely they’ll be making some tough decisions over the next few months. It’ll be interesting to see how things shake out for the iconic Danish organization, who seem as far away from trophy wins as ever.
