The group stage and first eliminations of BLAST Slam 5 is now in the rear view mirror, with the LAN playoffs set to kick off tomorrow in Chengdu, China. The last six surviving teams will battle it out in a single elimination gauntlet bracket, for their share of the $1 million prize pool and the glory of becoming the next BLAST Slam champions.
I’ve not done any sort of predictions for Dota 2 since The International 2025 (TI14), and even those were merely predictions for the TI14 Compendium. This time, though, I’ll be putting on my best Nostradamus impression for the BLAST Slam 5 playoffs, and I’ll see by the end of the week if I’ve gotten at least a few of these right.
Quarterfinals
Team Yandex 2-1 OG
We’re starting off with a pretty tough match to call, if I’m being honest. These two squads in particular have been surging forward in the early goings of this new competitive season, with OG building on the foundations they had as Team Aureus at PGL Wallachia Season 6 and Yandex finding their groove at FISSURE Playground.
This best-of-three series could really go either way. Like I said, OG have been on a great development trajectory so far this season, especially compared to when they missed out on the LAN at BLAST Slam 4 just last month. Just the fact that they’ll be in the stadium at Chengdu is already a big improvement.
But Yandex have proven themselves as a force to be reckoned with and not to be underestimated. I’ve certainly burned myself doing the latter in this tournament alone, and I’m not keen on making that same mistake again.
That said, I have to pick someone to advance to the semifinals. Personally, I think Yandex will make it through, as much as I hate to say it as someone from Southeast Asia. It’ll most likely be on the margins and OG should put up one hell of a fight as they eventually go down swinging. Of course, if I’m wrong on this one, I’ll gladly be wrong.
MOUZ 2-0 Natus Vincere
In contrast, this matchup should be easier to predict. MOUZ are the reigning PGL Wallachia champions, and they didn’t get there by accident. Sure, Team Falcons wasn’t there to maybe bar their way to the grand finals, but winning a LAN so soon after forming is a feat usually reserved for younger squads like PARIVISION last season.
Image credit: Shaun Lee, BLAST
I like Na’Vi’s overall consistency, but I just don’t see them having enough firepower here to overcome MOUZ. They’ll have plenty of time to develop as a unit over the coming months, especially under their new coach, the multiple time LAN winning Aske “Cy-” Larsen. Right now, though, it’s MOUZ’ time.
Semifinals
Team Falcons 2-0 Team Yandex
I mean, would this really be a surprise by any stretch of the imagination? There’s a reason Falcons won TI14 and put themselves in the BLAST Slam 4 grand finals, although they did end up losing to Tundra Esports in one of the most cardiac title deciders I’ve seen since TI8. There’s also a reason why they went 10-1 in the group stage of Slam 5, and it’s for that same reason that I don’t see a way for Yandex to get past them in the semifinals.
Image credit: Shaun Lee / BLAST
The Falcons are just that freakin’ good. They’re nigh impossible to draft against, which is simply unfair given that this entire roster is filled from top to bottom with hero specialists. Ban some of their heroes in the first phase, and at least one of them will still find room to fit their comfort picks in thereafter. I don’t think Yandex can contend with that kind of flexibility, so this will probably be an easy sweep for Falcons.
Tundra Esports 2-1 MOUZ
I realize that I’m basically just parroting the results of this very same head-to-head matchup from Slam 4, and trust me — I really want things to go differently this time around just to make things more interesting. But Tundra are red hot at this tournament, with the same 10-1 record as Falcons coming out of the group stage.
Image credit: Shaun Lee, BLAST
They performed rather poorly at PGL Wallachia Season 6, but have since bounced back from their troubles in Bucharest to get off to a fantastic start here. They’ll be arriving in Chengdu with their confidence mostly restored, which means they’ll have the edge against MOUZ — the same team that they beat in this exact same spot last time around as I mentioned.
Still, I fully expect this to be an extremely competitive series. MOUZ are much better than they were at Singapore after winning Wallachia just over a week ago, and you best believe they’ll be bringing their A-game to this fast-growing rivalry. This one might go down to the wire.
Grand Final
Team Falcons 3-1 Tundra Esports
Rematch alert. These two teams are destined to meet once more in the championship match, and I know that Falcons are hungry for payback after what happened to them at the hands of Tundra in Singapore. I can’t imagine that we’ll be seeing another repeat draft like we did at Slam 4, which in turn leads me to believe that Falcons will have their drafting figured out more should they and Tundra play against each other in a best-of-five again.
Image credit: Shaun Lee / BLAST
Granted, I was there in person to witness how much fun both squads were having in those last two games. The way the fifth game’s picks and bans went was no accident, and it was very obvious that both Tundra and Falcons were leaning into it for the crowd and for their own enjoyment. Not sure it’ll be all fun and games again this time around, though, and I have a feeling coach Kurtis “Aui_2000” Ling will have a more serious outlook on a series like this.
With that in mind, I’m giving the advantage to Falcons, if they can prove that they’ve learned their lessons from their previous grand final loss. This is a team that can put their opponents away before the series gets out of hand, too, so I can see them locking in and closing things out in four games.
Don’t get me wrong: I am not counting Tundra out fully just because I think Falcons are better on paper and are on a mission of revenge. They proved that they can string two straight games together in a grand final match after going down 1-2 to the best squad in the world, so it’s still entirely possible that they’ll pull another pair of rabbits out of a hat if it does come to that.
It’s just that I feel that Falcons’ ability to get better and better from their failures means that they’ll be much more prepared and composed this time.
Patrick has been playing Dota since the dawn of time, having started with the original custom game for WarCraft III. He primarily plays safe lane and solo mid, preferring to leave the glorious task of playing support to others.
