ESL Pro League Season 23 Quarter-Finals Preview: Shocks on the Horizon?

The Playoffs of ESL Pro League Season 23 are here, bringing the long-running tournament back to the big stage for the first time in many years. Stockholm’s Annexet plays host as eight of the best CS2 teams in the world vie to become the latest EPL champions. With tournament holders Vitality skipping out, it’s time for a new team to step up and claim the throne.

We’re looking at the four matches in the ESL Pro League Season 23 Quarter-Finals, to see who has the best chance of fighting their way through to the Semis.

The MongolZ vs. NAVI

The MongolZ vs. NAVI is a matchup between two teams that haven’t come close to hitting their potential so far this year. But I would argue that they are rosters on different trajectories right now.

For The MongolZ, adding cobrazera was a risk worth taking. He’s another big talent from the region, and although he has struggled to live up to his predecessor Senzu, he’s doing a serviceable job helping The MongolZ stay relevant at the top of the game. It’s been a slow burn, for sure, but they finally look like a team that can do some damage again. Qualifying for the ESL Pro League S23 Playoffs in 3:1 fashion was impressive, and beating 3DMAX and Aurora along the way are some good scalps to take.

Meanwhile, NAVI feel like they exist in limbo. Not quite good enough to challenge for the top prizes, but not bad enough to make sweeping roster changes. They needed all five matches to reach the Playoffs at EPL, barely making it against 3DMAX. The vibes around this team feel better than last year, but you still wouldn’t call it great by any measure. Where The MongolZ feel like they’re in the ascendency, NAVI feel like they’re just sort of floating in the void, which I think will make the difference in this series.

Our prediction: The MongolZ 2:1 NAVI

Legacy vs. Aurora

Legacy vs. Aurora represents an increasingly rare sight in Counter-Strike – two national teams facing one another without international assistance. Aurora are the favorites, but arguably, Legacy have a lot of momentum on their side too.

On paper, it’s always hard to look past the name value of Aurora in clashes like this. Wicadia, woxic, and XANTARES represent massive firepower, and with a trio like that at their disposal, you often wonder how they lose any matches at all. Getting Anubis back in the map pool has been massive for them, too, with an 83.3% win rating on their home map since its return, changes and all. Wins over Falcons, MOUZ, Astralis, and G2 since the start of February show their ceiling. And when you look at their elimination matches, it’s losses to FURIA and Vitality that have sent them packing from events this year. They’ve become very tough to beat in important moments.

But Aurora cannot afford to underestimate Legacy, either. Since replacing IGL lux with arT, a move just about everyone condemned at the time, Legacy have enjoyed a marked improvement. Across 16 maps played at ESL Pro League Season 23 so far, they have only dropped three. It’s a great record. However, two of those losses came at the hands of Aurora – this is a Quarter-Final rematch from Stage 2. I’ve seen nothing from either team to suggest this will be anything but a repeat of their previous matchup.

Our prediction: Legacy 1:2 Aurora

MOUZ vs. FUT

I love this MOUZ vs. FUT matchup. On the one hand, you have MOUZ, the young team that at this point needs to graduate and become consistent event winners. And on the other hand, there’s FUT, enjoying their first big stage experience together, a young lineup that has exploded onto the scene in 2026 and impressed at every turn, but without the pressure to actually go and win events yet.

Much has been made of MOUZ’s stage struggles, with xertioN in particular seeing a major performance dip once Counter-Strike leaves the studio and heads in front of a crowd. But this isn’t quite the same scale as the events where MOUZ have struggled previously, and I would expect them to be their normal selves coming into the ESL Pro League Season 23 Quarter-Finals. Their record so far at EPL is a 3:0 sweep in Stage 2, but they did drop maps to both Astralis and HEROIC, albeit in the typically wacky online CS environment.

FUT have the consistency problem that many young rosters face. It’s no indictment of the players – this often sorts itself out with experience. Across the board, FUT have firepower to burn, with AWPer cmtry arguably being the weak link right now. Krabeni is the very definition of a fragging IGL, and it’s hard to overstate how impressive they’ve been of late. Here, though, MOUZ may prove to be a step too far, especially when faced with the pressure of the stage for the very first time. It’s too much, too soon, and I expect we’ll see a repeat result from when these teams last went head-to-head at PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026.

Our prediction: MOUZ 2:0 FUT

Astralis vs. Spirit

Astralis vs. Spirit could throw a serious spanner in the works of this bracket if there’s an upset. While Spirit are big favorites, Astralis will have plenty of belief that they can kick off a huge underdog run here in the ESL Pro League Season 23 Quarter-Finals.

Since going international, Astralis have looked much-improved over the 2025 form. Taking a chance on phzy and ryu has already paid dividends, and the organization is back where it belongs in Playoffs. They haven’t always been able to keep things clean, even in victory. But they’re finding the answers to win all the same, and HooXi‘s calling has notably stepped up in recent months. Meanwhile, Staehr finally looks every bit the star rifler we know he can be. I’m very high on Astralis at the moment.

But Spirit have donk, and sometimes, it really is just that simple. That’s not exactly groundbreaking analysis, but I’m not sure it needs to be. He tips the balance of every match he enters, and has shown no sign of slowing down in his third year of Tier 1 play. Since magixx became IGL, Spirit have only lost to PARIVISION and FURIA, beating almost everyone in sight. Spirit are far from untouchable, and I think Astralis will take a map, but I think this is a step too far for the team.

Our prediction: Astralis 1:2 Spirit